21/03/2024
Evaluating the Euro 2024 qualifying playoff match between Poland and Estonia with statistics and analysis in mind, Poland seems to be the clear favorite in many ways. The match will be held at the National Stadium in Warsaw, which further increases the chances of the Polish team.
First, let’s look at the statistics. Poland scored an average of 1.25 goals per game, while Estonia only scored 0.25. Poland’s number of goals and goal average are significantly higher, which highlights their attacking power. In contrast, Estonia conceded 22 goals, an average of 2.75 per game, while Poland conceded only 10, or 1.25 per game.
Poland’s high possession rate (61%) and passing accuracy (83.13%) also suggest that they can control the game and pass accurately. Estonia lags significantly in this area (39.63% ball possession, 73.63% pass accuracy), which could be a disadvantage for them.
Analyst opinions also highlight Poland’s strengths and Estonia’s weaknesses. Poland’s stable presence at the European Championships and its strong performance at home (unbeaten in 20 domestic European Championship qualifiers) are outstanding. Estonia, on the other hand, comes from a difficult group, where they scored just one point and were defeated by a significant goal difference during the qualifiers.
Regarding the composition of the teams in Poland, the presence of Robert Lewandowski, who is the best scorer in the history of the Polish national team, is outstanding. Although Arkadiusz Milik is out due to injury, Adam Buksa and Krzysztof Piatek are able to replace him. In Estonia, the experience of veteran Konstantin Vasiliev could be key, but the team as a whole is less strong.
1) Based on my prediction, I expect Poland to win. This decision is based on statistical data, the form of the teams and the opinions of analysts. Poland are a stronger team in both attack and defense, and playing at home gives them an added advantage.
2) The match is expected to score more than 1.5 goals, but even more than 2.5 goals. Based on Poland’s offensive strength and Estonia’s defensive weaknesses, it is likely that Poland will be able to score more goals. Estonia’s struggles during the qualifiers and the significant goal difference suggest that the Polish team will be able to exploit their opponents’ weaknesses. The vulnerability of Estonia’s defense and the high goal difference they suffered during the qualifiers suggests that Poland’s forwards, especially Lewandowski and co, will be able to prevail effectively. Furthermore, Poland’s strong form at home and their results in previous matches show that they are capable of dominating and scoring high goals.
Due to the importance of the match, the home field advantage, and the difference in quality between the teams, it is expected that Poland will control the game and will be able to take advantage of more scoring opportunities. For Estonia, although the team will look to defend and try to minimize the number of goals conceded, the strength and technical superiority of the Polish offensive line will probably be too much of an obstacle for them.