14/04/2024
Analysis ahead of the Serie A match between Internazionale and Cagliari :
1) Who can win the match and why?
Inter’s statistics and form have been exceptional this season, as shown by their Serie A results and promotion record. Internazionale have 26 wins and just one defeat in 31 games, while Cagliari have just 5 wins. Inter have a much better goal difference and xG (expected goals), suggesting that they are better at exploiting their positions and defending more effectively. Inter’s striker Lautaro Martínez is particularly dangerous, having already scored 23 league goals, while Cagliari’s top scorers Gianluca Lapadula and Nicolas Viola have only scored 4-4 goals. Inter’s solid defensive statistics, in particular the outstanding performance of goalkeeper Yann Sommer (82.4% save rate), further strengthen their position ahead of victory.
2) Are you expecting more or less than a goal and a half from this match and why?
Given Inter’s attacking power and high goal rate (75 goals in 31 games) and Cagliari’s weaker defence (54 goals conceded), there is likely to be more than one-and-a-half goals. Inter’s high xG (65.8) and Cagliari’s high xGA (53.2) also point in this direction, indicating that Inter can create more scoring chances and are likely to score more goals.
3) Low-risk betting tips:
When it comes to betting on the match, the options “Inter win” and “more than one and a half goals” and “less than 2.5 goals for Cagliari” seem to be the least risky, given Inter’s dominant form and attacking power. In addition, the “both teams score – no” option could be interesting, given Inter’s solid defence (only 15 goals conceded in 31 games) and Cagliari’s low scoring capacity. The Asian handicap, where Inter get a fictitious handicap, could also be interesting if a greater risk was taken in exchange for higher odds.