March 6, 2024, 21:00
Our analysis concentrates on the Europa League round of 16 second-leg match between Qarabag FK and Bayer Leverkusen, incorporating both teams’ statistical data and expert pre-match analyses. The match will take place at the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, providing Qarabag with a home-field advantage. However, Leverkusen’s stronger statistics and the advantage gained from the first match tilt the odds in their favor.
1) Who will win the match and why?
Advantages for Bayer Leverkusen:
Leverkusen remained undefeated in the Europa League group stage, finishing with maximum points, showcasing remarkable performance. Additionally, they are in excellent form in the Bundesliga, leading the championship.
Leverkusen’s attacking power is impressive, with 19 goals in 6 matches, averaging 3.17 goals per match, compared to Qarabag’s average of 1.63.
The team boasts an extremely high pass accuracy of 91% and a possession rate of 59.84%, demonstrating their precision and control in play.
Challenges for Qarabag:
Qarabag scored 13 goals and conceded 14 in the Europa League, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
The team has a lower possession rate (48.13%) and lower pass accuracy (81.5%) compared to Leverkusen.
Based on the analysis: I predict a victory for Bayer Leverkusen, considering their strong attacking play, high pass accuracy, and the advantage from the first match (though a draw is also a slight possibility).
2) How many goals will be in the match and why?
Given Leverkusen’s attack-oriented playing style and Qarabag’s defensive weaknesses, several goals are expected. Leverkusen has averaged more than 3 goals per match in the Europa League, while Qarabag has conceded an average of 1.75. This suggests that 2-4 goals could occur in the match.
3) More or less than 1.5 goals in the match and why?
Considering Leverkusen’s attacking potential and Qarabag’s uncertain defense, it’s likely that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in the match. Both teams have the capability to score, and the struggle for advancement could result in additional goals.
Summary:
Bayer Leverkusen’s outstanding form, the team’s attacking strength and statistical advantages, and the advantage from the first match against Qarabag make them the favorites for this match, with Qarabag possibly achieving at most a draw. Leverkusen’s dominance, high possession rate, and pass accuracy allow them to control the game flow and effectively exploit Qarabag’s defensive weaknesses. The match is expected to end with more than 1.5 goals, as both teams have the ability to score, and the fight for advancement could lead to additional goals.