12/04/2024
In the analysis, I have primarily taken into account the statistics of the Lens and Metz teams, but I have also taken into account the opinions of the experts, although I have treated them with a critical eye.
Lens have scored more goals on average than Metz this season and have conceded fewer goals, reflected in their goals against average of 1.32-1.00. Lens have scored 37 goals compared to Metz’s 28, and while Metz have conceded 48 goals, Lens have only 30. So Lens’ attacking strength and defensive stability seems to be better. In addition, Lens’ xG (expected number of goals) is also higher, suggesting that they generally create better situations than Metz.
The individual stats of Lens players such as Elye Wahi, who scored 7 goals and 5.8 xG, and Florian Sotoca, who scored 5 goals and 5.8 xG, also support the team’s strength in attack. Metz’s top scorer, Georges Mikautadze, has scored 7 goals but his xG is only 6.8, meaning his goal-scoring form is likely to be less sustainable.
Metz’s defence looks weaker, as they concede more goals and have higher xGA (expected number of goals scored), which indicates that they allow more dangerous situations to their opponents. Alexandre Oukidja, the goalkeeper of Metz, has conceded more goals and has a lower save percentage than Brice Samba, the goalkeeper of Lens.
Considering the teams’ performances so far, the stats and xG values, and the fact that Lens are playing at home, I see a higher chance that Lens will win this game. Their attack is stronger and their defense is more solid, which could be decisive in a match like this.
As for the number of goals, based on Lens’ games so far and Metz’s goals scored, it is likely that more than 1.5 goals will be scored. The last match between the two teams also saw goals scored, and both teams have played goal-filled matches this season.
From a betting point of view, the ‘Lens win or draw’ and ‘more than 1.5 goals’ options seem to be low risk. The Asian handicap, which favours Lens, could also be a good option, considering the power balance between the teams and Lens’ home performance.