18/04/2024
Analysis of the second leg of the Europa League quarter-final, Marseille vs Benfica:
- Match result:
Based on Marseille’s statistical profile and form, they clearly look the stronger team at home. The average number of goals per game is 2.28, compared to Benfica’s average of 1.4. The majority of their goals come from inside the penalty area, which underlines their strong close-range play. Marseille players such as Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can be particularly dangerous, having scored 12 goals in Ligue 1 so far. These figures suggest that Marseille are likely to win this match. - Number of goals (more or less than 1.5):
Based on both teams’ previous matches, it is likely that the match will result in more than 1.5 goals. Despite Marseille’s high average goalscoring and Benfica’s solid defence, their home ground and attacking strengths will give them an advantage. Benfica’s defensive stats (only 0.8 goals per game average in Europa League) are strong, but Marseille’s attacking power and high ball possession rate (47%) could be decisive. - Low risk bets:
- Both teams score goals: Marseille’s strong attacking ability and Benfica’s ability to score in every Europa League match.
- More than 1.5 goals: As mentioned earlier, the goal-producing ability of both teams and the statistics suggest that more goals are likely.
- Asian handicap on Marseille: Marseille’s home advantage and stronger statistical indicators make this a less risky bet.
- Number of yellow cards: on average Marseille have received less than 2 yellow cards (1.82 average), so a lower yellow card bet may be justified, although it carries more risk.
In conclusion, based on Marseille’s strong attacking play and home performance, I would give them a better chance of winning. I’m also optimistic about the number of goals, considering the past performances of both teams. Among the low-risk bets, I recommend the options “both teams score” and “more than 1.5 goals”. I do not recommend betting on the result of the quarter-final rematch.