March 13, 2024, 21:00
In the preliminary analysis of the Champions League round of 16 second leg match between Borussia Dortmund and PSV Eindhoven, I relied on statistical data and numerous analyses written by experts. As a result of this thorough analysis, I will attempt to predict the outcome of the match, the expected number of goals, and whether there will be more or less than 2.5 goals scored in the game.
Winner and rationale
Based on the statistics of Dortmund and PSV, a close match is anticipated. Both teams are in similar form, as reflected in their performances in the Champions League and their domestic leagues. Dortmund has been unbeaten at home in their last eight Champions League matches, which could be a significant advantage for them. However, PSV is in a difficult position, having failed to win in any of their previous 16 visits to Germany. Considering Dortmund’s strong home performance and the draw in the first match, I believe Dortmund is in a position to leverage their home advantage and advance to the next round. Their advantage lies in home field and international experience.
Expected number of goals and rationale
According to the statistics of Dortmund and PSV, both teams have the ability to score, but their defensive stats are also strong. Dortmund has scored an average of 1.15 goals per match, while PSV has scored 1.29. Considering the goal numbers, I expect a balanced match with a low number of goals, where both teams will be cautious given the stakes. The expected number of goals for the match is 2 or fewer.
Whether the match will have more or less than 2.5 goals and rationale
Given the teams’ defensive performances and the stakes of advancing to the Champions League quarter-finals, it is likely that there will be fewer than 2.5 goals scored in the match. The teams will be cautious, prioritizing stable defense over risky attacking play. Furthermore, the statistics and the current form of the teams suggest a tight, low-scoring encounter.
Analysis Summary
I consider Dortmund to be the favorite to advance, primarily due to their strong performance at home and PSV’s weaker form in matches in Germany. I expect a match dominated by defense, with a likely outcome of 2 or fewer goals, thus concluding with a high probability of less than 2.5 goals scored.