11/04/2024
The clash between Benfica and Marseille in the first leg of the Europa League quarter-finals deserves special attention, as both teams have exceptional potential but come to the meeting in different form and circumstances. Below, I detail my predictions based on the teams’ statistics, analysis from the experts and their current form and past performances.
First of all, Benfica scored 5 goals and conceded 3 in the Europa League, which indicates that the team has a solid defense and an efficient attacking game, but they score fewer goals than Marseille. Benfica’s possession rate and passing accuracy are higher, showing that they control the game better and pass more accurately. In addition, Benfica are extremely strong at home, at Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, where they have lost only one of their last 19 matches in all competitions.
Marseille, on the other hand, have scored 24 goals and conceded 16 in the Europa League, suggesting they are a team that is extremely attack-minded but their defence is more vulnerable. The team’s possession rate and passing accuracy are lower than Benfica’s, which could suggest that they are less in control of the game. Marseille’s away record against Portuguese teams is poor, with only one win in nine matches.
Benfica’s current form is solid, they have lost only one of their last seven matches and their home record is excellent. Marseille, on the other hand, are in a weaker position in Ligue 1 and have suffered four consecutive defeats recently, which is a cause for concern about their form.
1) Considering Benfica’s home strength, their statistical superiority, and Marseille’s current form, I think Benfica have a better chance of winning this match. Benfica will be able to take advantage of their home advantage and defend more effectively against Marseille’s attacking strength, which could result in a draw at most.
2) In terms of goals scored, given the attacking prowess of both teams and the defensive vulnerability of Marseille, it is likely that there will be more than 1.5 goals scored in the match. Based on Marseille’s performance so far, the team will play a goal-rich game, while Benfica at home should be able to exploit Marseille’s defensive weaknesses.
Overall, Benfica’s more solid form, home strength and Marseille’s current weaknesses suggest that Benfica are closer to victory (with a slight chance of a draw) in this key Europa League encounter, which is expected to see more than 1.5 goals scored.