17/04/2024
The second leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich and Arsenal promises to be an exciting clash, both statistically and according to expert analysis. The first match ended in a 2-2 draw, which will have a major impact on the outcome of the second leg. In my analysis, I have concentrated on the statistical data, but I have also taken into account the opinions of the experts.
1) Probability of winning:
Bayern Munich will host Arsenal at home in the Allianz Arena, where they are in great form. Bayern have qualified 17 times in the last 18 Champions League knockout matches without losing in the first leg. Given these statistics and home advantage, I’d bet on Bayern Munich to win. Arsenal, on the other hand, have not conceded a goal in their last three away games, which shows that they can defend against Bayern. However, Bayern’s attacking prowess, in particular the presence of Harry Kane and Serge Gnabry, who scored in the first leg, could decide the match in Bayern’s favour.
2) Match score:
Both teams have shown great attacking ability this season, with Arsenal averaging more than two goals per game and Bayern also scoring almost two. Based on previous meetings where both teams have scored a total of four goals in the first leg, it is likely that the second leg will also end in more than a goal and a half. Both teams have strikers who can score and as Bayern are playing at home, they will probably try to dominate and score more goals.
3) Low risk betting tips:
Based on the result of the match, the option “both teams will score” seems low risk, as both teams have a strong forward line and both teams scored in the first match. The ‘more than one and a half goals’ option also seems a safe choice, given the attacking capabilities of the teams and the results they have achieved so far. The ‘Bayern win or draw’ option is a higher risk, but has a good chance of winning, given Bayern’s home record and strong Champions League form, but also the fact that anything can happen in a quarter-final. However, I would avoid betting on the number of yellow cards, as the tension of the match could make this number volatile.
In summary, based on Bayern Munich’s home advantage, statistics and past performances, I see a better chance of victory for them, and the match should see more than 1.5 goals scored. Among the low-risk bets, I would highlight the options “both teams will score” and “more than one and a half goals”.