11/04/2024
Based on preliminary analysis and a close look at the statistics, the first leg of the Europa League quarter-final between Bayer Leverkusen and West Ham United is likely to go the other way. I think so for several reasons:
Firstly, Leverkusen are in very impressive form, both in the Bundesliga and in the Europa League. The team has scored 24 goals and only 7 in the Europa League, an average of 3 goals per game, while the average goals conceded is only 0.88. The team has a 61% possession rate and 90.88% passing accuracy, which shows that they are able to control the flow of the game and pass accurately. In addition, Leverkusen have won all of their home Europa League matches this season, scoring at least three goals in each.
Secondly, West Ham, although they have made significant progress in European Cups in recent years and were impressive in the return leg against Freiburg, their statistics are less impressive than Leverkusen’s. They have scored 15 goals and conceded 5 in the Europa League, giving them an average goals scored of 1.88 and goals conceded of 0.63 per game. Their possession rate and passing accuracy are also lower than Leverkusen.
Thirdly, Leverkusen coach Xabi Alonso is leading the team superbly, and the turnaround against Qarabag proved the team’s mental strength and stamina. Turnovers like this can give a team great confidence ahead of further matches.
Finally, according to the “experts”, Leverkusen and West Ham have only met in a friendly match, which Leverkusen won 4-0. Although this match was not an official meeting, this result shows that Leverkusen can dominate West Ham.
1) Based on the analysis, I think Bayer Leverkusen will win the match (with a very slim chance of a draw). The team’s excellent form, home form and statistical superiority make them the closer team to win.
2) On the number of goals, considering Leverkusen’s attacking potential and West Ham’s defensive vulnerability, it is likely that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in the match. Leverkusen have been able to score at least three goals in every home Europa League match this season, suggesting that this meeting could be goal-rich.
Overall, although West Ham may be capable of causing a surprise, Bayer Leverkusen’s current form and statistical advantage make them the favourites to win this key Europa League encounter, but the surprise could be a draw at most.