European Championship, Semi-final
Based on a detailed analysis of the Spain-France match, I observed the following key statistical data and trends in the play of both teams, which help formulate the safest betting tips.
Spain Statistics and Analysis
Offensive Play and Effectiveness:
- Spain scored 10 goals in 5 matches, averaging 2 goals per match.
- The team generated 10.2 xG, which matches their actual number of goals, indicating that their attack efficiency reflects their opportunities well.
- Top scorers include Fabián Ruiz Peña and Dani Olmo, both with 2 goals. Olmo is particularly effective, averaging 1.35 goals per match.
Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
- Spain’s defense is also outstanding, conceding only 2 goals, averaging 0.37 goals per match.
- Unai Simón’s goalkeeping performance is remarkable, with an 81.8% save efficiency and 3.4 PSxG (post-shot expected goals).
Passing and Ball Possession:
- Spain’s passing accuracy is excellent at 87.8%.
- Fabián Ruiz Peña and Rodri stand out in midfield, both with 93% passing accuracy.
- The team excels in progressive passes and passes into the attacking third.
France Statistics and Analysis
Offensive Play and Effectiveness:
- France scored only 1 goal in 5 matches, averaging a very low 0.19 goals per match.
- Their xG is 7.9, showing a significant difference from their actual goal-scoring, suggesting they have not converted their chances.
- Kylian Mbappé is the team’s sole goal scorer, but there is a notable gap between his 2.7 xG and actual goals scored.
Defense and Goalkeeping Performance:
- France’s defense is extremely strong, conceding only 1 goal, averaging 0.19 goals per match.
- Mike Maignan has a 100% save efficiency and 3.9 PSxG, showing outstanding goalkeeping performance.
Passing and Ball Possession:
- France’s passing accuracy is also high at 88.5%.
- N’Golo Kanté and Aurélien Tchouaméni excel in midfield, both with over 90% passing accuracy.
Motivation and Tactical Analysis
Experts suggest that the Spanish team’s motivation and cohesion are very high, especially considering their previous match successes. On the other hand, France struggles with scoring but has a very solid defense.
Betting Tips
Low-Risk Tips
- Under 3.5 goals in the match (Low risk), Under 2.5 goals in the match (Medium risk): Both teams have very strong defenses, and France’s attacking efficiency is low.
- Spain win or draw (Double Chance): Spain is in good form and likely to at least draw the match. (Low risk)
- Under 10.5 corners in the match (Low risk): Both teams prefer to play in midfield and are less likely to force many corners.
- Under 5.5 cards in the match (Low risk): Statistics show that both teams play disciplined games, with few yellow cards in the tournament. (Low risk)
Summary
Based on statistical data and expert analyses, the Spanish team appears stronger and more effective in attack, while France has excellent defense but ineffective attack. The safest bets are under 2.5 goals and Spain win or draw. These data and trends provide a solid foundation for low- and medium-risk betting tips.