12/05/2024
The analysis below is based on statistical and expert analysis of Marseille and Lorient teams, which I have used to formulate my betting tips.
Statistical data and form of teams:
Marseille:
- In the current season, Marseille have an average goals scored per game of 1.45, while their average goals conceded is 1.23. This statistic indicates that they have a relatively solid defence, but there is still room for improvement in the attacking section.
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang stands out from the team with 14 goals and 8 assists, indicating that he is the key figure in the team’s attacking play.
- The team’s xG (expected goal) is 49.1, which is higher than the number of goals actually scored (45), indicating that the team could have scored more goals from the situations.
Lorient:
- For Lorient, the goals scored per game is 1.23, while the goals conceded is 1.52. This suggests that their defence is weaker than Marseille’s.
- Their top scorer, Terem Moffi, has already scored 12 goals, so he is the biggest threat.
- Their xG stats (42) are lower than the number of goals scored (47), suggesting that the team’s defence is underperforming expectations.
Expert analysis:
The analyses highlight Marseille’s attacking strengths and Lorient’s defensive weaknesses. This suggests that Marseille will dominate the match, especially at home.
Betting tips:
- Win or draw:
Marseille win or draw is a safe bet, considering Marseille’s home performance and statistics.
Risk: Low - Number of goals (Under/Over):
- Based on Marseille’s solid defence and Lorient’s high number of goals scored, a “1.5 goals over” tip is justified. Marseille are stronger at home and could take advantage of Lorient’s weak defence.
- Risk: Low
- Asian Handicap:
- Marseille -0.5, given that they are in strong form at home and should be able to beat Lorient by at least one goal (Marseille -1.5 could also be justified, but it is a higher risk, so it is only recommended for those who want to take a risk.)
- Risk: Low for -0.5, Medium for -1.5
- Number of yellow cards:
- Due to the importance of the match and the difference between the teams, the number of yellow cards is expected to be high. A tip could be “yellow cards over 3.5”.
- Risk: Medium
Summary:
Marseille are outstanding at home, with Aubameyang’s goals playing a crucial role. Lorient’s defensive problems are what
Att expect Marseille to take advantage of the situations, so “2.5 goals over” and “Marseille -1.5 Asian handicap” are the most promising betting tips.