16/05/2024 dawn (Central European Time), 15/05/2024 evening local time
Statistical Analysis
Fluminense Statistics:
- Attacking play: Fluminense scored 4 goals in 4 matches in the Copa Libertadores. The most outstanding player is Marquinhos, who has 2 goals and 1 assist. The team’s xG (expected goals) is 1.5, which shows that their performance is up to expectations.
- Defence: the team scored 2 goals, which indicates that they have a relatively solid defence. Goalkeeper Fábio has an outstanding save efficiency of 83.3%.
- Passing game: the team’s passing accuracy is 87.5%, which is high, with Martinelli and André in particular performing well in midfield.
Cerro Porteño Statistics:
- Attacking play: Cerro Porteño have scored just 2 goals in 4 games, a low total. Juan Iturbe and Federico Carrizo are the goal scorers. Their xG is 1.6, slightly lower than Fluminense.
- Defence: Cerro Porteño also scored 2 goals, with goalkeeper Jean having a save efficiency of 81.8%.
- Passing: their passing accuracy is 70.5%, which is lower than Fluminense. The number of forward passes is also lower, indicating that the team is finding it harder to break through the midfield.
Expert Analyses
Analyses highlight that Fluminense are stronger at home and, in particular, better in attacking play. Cerro Porteño, on the other hand, have more of a defensive style, which is reflected in their statistics, as they score few goals but also score few.
Key players:
- Fluminense: Marquinhos and Germán Cano, who show goal-scoring potential. Marcelo’s experience and defensive skills could also be important.
- Cerro Porteño: Juan Iturbe and Federico Carrizo are the key players in the attack. The role of goalkeeper Jean is also key to the stability of the defence.
Tips and Risk Assessment
1st goalscorer Tip: Marquinhos (Fluminense)
- Risk: Medium
- Rationale: Marquinhos has scored 2 goals so far and is a central figure in the attack. Cerro Porteño’s defence is solid, but Marquinhos’ form and Fluminense’s home advantage mean he is likely to score.
Match 2 Goals: 3,5 under
- Risk: Low
- Rationale: Both teams have strong defences and both have scored few goals so far in the tournament. This tip is based on the assumption that the defense will dominate the match.
3. Fluminense win
- Risk: Medium, with “win or draw” being low risk
- Rationale: Fluminense are playing at home and are a stronger team based on their performances so far. Human analysis also indicates that home advantage and their attacking play is likely to result in a win.
Summary
Based on the statistics and expert analysis, the match could be a low-scoring affair, with Fluminense the more likely to win at home. Key players such as Marquinhos and Germán Cano are expected to play a decisive role. Cerro Porteño will rely more on their defence and are less likely to score many goals.
This detailed analysis and risk assessment can help bettors to select low to medium risk picks, taking into account the current form and statistics of both teams.