16/05/2024, LaLiga
In my in-depth analysis of the upcoming match between Almería and Barcelona, I have taken into account the statistics of both teams and an expert article. This assessment is based on the most recent data and trends, which allow us to get a more accurate picture of the likely outcome.
Almería Statistical Analysis
Almería have been very poor in La Liga this season, currently sitting bottom of the table. In 35 games played so far, they have won just 2, drawn 11 and lost 22. The team also has a negative goal difference, with 35 goals scored and 70 conceded, a goal difference of -35.
The team’s top scorers were Léo Baptistão and Sergio Arribas, who both scored 6-6 goals. However, their attacking efficiency is low, with a team xG (expected goals) of 44.4, well below the xGA (expected goals scored) of the 70 goals they have scored.
Barcelona Statistical Analysis
Barcelona, on the other hand, have had an excellent season. They are currently top of La Liga with 25 wins, 7 draws and just 3 defeats. They have scored 68 goals and conceded only 19, giving them a goal difference of +49. Robert Lewandowski is in outstanding form, contributing 17 goals and 8 assists to the team’s success.
Injuries and Expected Starting Teams
The expected starting line-up for Almería:
- Luís Maximiano (goalkeeper)
- César Montes, Édgar González, Juan Brandáriz, Sergio Akieme (defenders)
- Lucas Robertone, Dion Lopy, Gonzalo Melero (midfielders)
- Adri Embarba, Sergio Arribas, Léo Baptistão (strikers)
Barcelona’s expected starting line-up:
- Marc-André ter Stegen (goalkeeper)
- Jules Koundé, Andreas Christensen, Ronald Araújo, João Cancelo (defenders)
- Frenkie de Jong, Ilkay Gündoğan, Pedri (midfielders)
- Raphinha, Robert Lewandowski, Gavi (strikers)
Summary and Betting Tips
Almería vs Barcelona – Betting tips:
- Barcelona win (Low risk)
Based on Barcelona’s dominant performance and Almería’s poor form, a win for Barcelona looks almost certain. Almería have only two wins this season, while Barcelona have only three defeats. - Robert Lewandowski scores a goal (Medium risk)
Lewandowski is Barcelona’s top goalscorer and is in great form. With 17 goals and 8 assists in 32 games, he is likely to score again against Almería’s weak defence. - More than 1.5 goals per match (Low risk)
With Barcelona’s strong attacking line and Almería’s weak defence, it is likely that more than 1.5 goals will be scored in this match.
Detailed Analysis
Defence and Attack
Almería’s defence is extremely weak with 70 goals conceded this season, while Barcelona’s attack is outstanding with 68 goals scored. Barcelona have attackers like Lewandowski and Gavi who can break through the Almería defence. Almería’s Sergio Arribas and Léo Baptistão can be a threat, but Barcelona’s defence (Christensen, Araújo) and goalkeeper (ter Stegen) can close them down effectively.
Form and Mental State
Barcelona are motivated and in good form, while Almería’s morale may be low due to a run of defeats. Barcelona’s dominance and experience could give them an advantage at critical moments.
Statistical Correlations
Almería’s xG (44.4) and goals conceded xGA (56.5) show that the team has significant defensive deficiencies. Barcelona, on the other hand, are excellent both offensively and defensively, reflecting the team’s balance and strength.
Closing Thoughts
There are significant differences between Almería and Barcelona, both statistically and in terms of form. For bettors, Barcelona’s win, Lewandowski scoring and Almería not scoring are the most likely scenarios to consider. Expert analysis confirms the conclusions drawn from the statistics, so these are low to medium risk bets.