21/04/2024
In the analysis below, I’ll take into account the recent matches and statistics of Lille and Strasbourg teams, as well as experts’ opinions to determine the risk-free betting odds, the winning team and the number of goals.
1) Low risk betting options:
- “Lille win or draw”
- Both teams score (Yes): Lille are strong at home, while Strasbourg often score in away games.
- More than 1.5 goals: Both teams tend to score more goals, especially in Lille’s home games, where the average number of goals is high.
2) The winning team:
- Lille’s home advantage and stronger attacking play make them favourites to win. Their static data and form support this, Jonathan David is in excellent form and the xG (expected goals) is higher for Lille.
3) More than 1.5 goals in the match:
- Yes, Lille have a strong attacking game and a high goal scoring rate this season. And Strasbourg’s defensive deficiencies further increase the likelihood of more than 1.5 goals in the match.
Detailed analysis and statistics:
Lille have a high average number of goals in their home games, with Jonathan David leading the team’s scoring charts with 16 goals, a major strength for the team. In previous matches, Lille have produced a xG (expected goals not from penalties) of 2.55, which is extremely high. In contrast, Strasbourg’s defence is weaker, with an average of 1.6 xGA (expected goals conceded) in away games.
However, Strasbourg’s attacking play is not negligible, with Emanuel Emegha and Kévin Gameiro in good form, the former scoring 7 goals. This increases the chances of Strasbourg scoring in the match, which supports the ‘both teams score’ tip.
Lille’s defensive stats are better than Strasbourg’s, but with Strasbourg’s goal scoring ability and Lille’s sometimes shaky defence, expect more than 1.5 goals to be scored.
Overall, Lille’s attack-oriented style of play and home advantage make them the favourites to win. Given the high goal count and the likelihood of both teams scoring, I recommend these betting tips as a low-risk option.