16/04/2024
The second leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain promises to be an exciting encounter, with statistics and analysts predicting the outcome based on a number of factors.
1) Who will win the match and why?
Barcelona are in an advantageous position, having won the first leg 3-2 in Paris. Their recent form has been exceptional; they are unbeaten in 13 matches, including 10 wins. Statistically, Barcelona are better in terms of goals scored (2.12 goals per game on average), while PSG have an average of just 1.67 goals against. Barcelona’s defence is also stronger, with fewer goals scored on average (1.12 compared with 1.34). In addition, Barcelona have exceptional passing accuracy (87.56%) and possession rate (56.67%), allowing them to control the game. These figures suggest that Barcelona are more likely to win this rematch.
2) Will there be more or less than one-and-a-half goals in the match and why?
Based on the statistical data and the style of play of the teams, it is likely that there will be more than one and a half goals in the match. Barcelona score an average of more than two goals a game and PSG also have solid strikers like Mbappé and Dembele who are capable of scoring at any moment. What’s more, their previous meeting also ended in a 3-2 draw, which also suggests that more goals will be scored in the second leg.
3) What can we say about this match as a low-risk conclusion?
A low risk bet could be BTTS (both teams will score), given that both teams have a strong forward line and both teams were able to score in the first game. In addition, the‘win or draw’ option for Barcelona also appears to be a low-risk option, given the team’s form and the advantage they gained in the first game. The Asian handicap, which favours Barcelona, may also be worth considering, as they are the stronger team both statistically and formally.
Overall, Barcelona will most likely be able to hold on to their lead and progress to the next round. The match should see more than one and a half goals scored, and the two teams scoring option looks like a low-risk bet. Statistical data played an important role in the analysis, which I combined with the analysis of human experts.