13/04/2024
The analysis of the Bayern Munich vs Cologne match tips the scales in Bayern Munich’s favour in many ways. Below, I detail the basis of my prediction:
- Goals and expected goals (xG): Bayern Munich have been outstanding this season, with Harry Kane standing out with 32 goals. Based on xG data, Bayern Munich are significantly outscoring Cologne, suggesting that they are better at taking advantage of their chances.
- Defence and goalkeeping: Manuel Neuer’s experience and Bayern’s defensive statistics are more robust than Cologne’s. Bayern conceded fewer goals and registered fewer xGA (expected goals allowed), suggesting a solid defence.
- Form and momentum: Bayern’s form is strong, with several big wins behind them, while Cologne’s results are more volatile. This is particularly important for the outcome of the match, as confidence and team unity can be a significant advantage.
My answers to the questions raised:
- Winner: I’m picking Bayern Munich to win. The main reasons for this are the team’s higher xG, better defensive record and stronger form.
- Number of goals (more or less than 1.5): There will probably be more than 1.5 goals in the match. Bayern’s high goalscoring and the fact that Cologne’s defense conceded more goals than they scored suggests that Bayern will be able to score more goals.
- Low risk bets: ‘BAYERN MÜNCHEN win or draw’, ‘both teams score’. Cologne have been able to score goals this season, even if their scoring rate is not up to Bayern’s level. In addition, “more than 1.5 goals” also seems safe given Bayern’s attacking strength and Cologne’s defensive weaknesses.
This gives Bayern Munich the advantage, especially in light of their attacking potential and solid defence, which is backed up by the statistics.