Scotland – Hungary

European Championship, June 23, 2024

Detailed Analysis

Team Motivation and Form

According to expert analysis, a victory is crucial for both teams, as this is the last match in the group stage, and both teams need the three points to advance. This motivation will be decisive in the teams’ play.

Statistical Analysis

Scotland:

• Offensive Play: Scotland scored 2 goals in 2 matches, with Scott McTominay being the sole scorer. Their xG (expected goals) is 0.8, indicating weak offensive play.
• Defense: 6 goals conceded and 3.2 xGA (expected goals against) suggest that the defense is vulnerable.
• Goalkeeper Performance: Angus Gunn’s 64.3% save rate is not outstanding, and his -2.0 PSxG+/- further highlights defensive weaknesses.
• Yellow Cards: Scotland received 4 yellow cards in 2 matches, indicating aggressive play.

Hungary:

• Offensive Play: They scored 1 goal in 2 matches, with Barnabás Varga being the only scorer. Their xG is 2.4, indicating moderate offensive play.
• Defense: 5 goals conceded and 3.7 xGA, suggesting weak defense.
• Goalkeeper Performance: Péter Gulácsi’s 64.3% save rate and +0.4 PSxG+/- indicate slightly better performance than the Scottish goalkeeper.
• Yellow Cards: Hungary also received 4 yellow cards, indicating aggressive play.

Low-Risk Betting Tips

Goals

• Both teams to score (low risk): Both teams are motivated to win, and their defense is not outstanding. Statistics suggest that both sides are likely to score.

Yellow Cards

• Over 3.5 yellow cards (low risk): Both teams showed aggressive play, with 4 yellow cards each in 2 matches. The intensity of the last, decisive match could result in more cards.

Corners

• Over 7.5 corners (medium risk): Both teams’ offensive play could result in corners. Scotland and Hungary have led numerous attacks in their previous matches, leading to corners.

Detailed Analysis of Low-Risk Betting Tips

1. Both teams to score (low risk):
   • Scotland: Scotland scored 2 goals in their previous matches, although their xG is 0.8, suggesting they had more opportunities. Their weak defense gives opportunities to the opponent.
   • Hungary: 1 goal scored and a 2.4 xG indicate that they can create chances, but their vulnerable defense makes it likely they will concede.
2. Over 3.5 yellow cards (low risk):
   • Scotland: 4 yellow cards in 2 matches indicate aggressive play.
   • Hungary: Also 4 yellow cards in 2 matches. The importance of the last match suggests even more yellow cards.
3. Over 7.5 corners (medium risk):
   • Scotland: Frequent attacks and a defense that can force corners.
   • Hungary: Similar offensive and defensive situations leading to more corners.

Expert Analysis and Interesting Facts

Experts highlighted that the match is crucial for both teams. Scotland and Hungary both want to win, increasing the match’s intensity. Based on injuries and the expected starting lineups, both coaches aim to field their best players. This dynamism and fighting spirit can result in more opportunities and fouls.

Closing Thoughts

The statistical data and expert analysis both support that the match will be intense and eventful. The above betting tips are low to medium risk, so they are likely to be accurate from the perspective of bookmakers.