Gimnasia – Banfield

26/05/2024, Argentine Primera Division

Statistical analysis

Gimnasia (LP) statistics:

• Game time and performance: in Gimnasia’s two games so far, they have scored 4 points, scored 4 goals and conceded 2. This indicates a strong start, especially in light of their 1.8 xG and 1.3 xGA indicators, which suggest their offense is efficient but their defense could improve.
• Player performance: Rodrigo Castillo and Nicolás Colazo stand out with 1-1 goals. Castillo has 3 shots with 50% accuracy, while Colazo has 1.5 shots with 33% accuracy. Furthermore, Matías Abaldo scored 1 goal from 2 shots, which shows a high efficiency.
• Defense: Yonathan Cabral and Leonardo Morales are doing a solid defensive job, with 8 and 4 clearances and 5 and 3 ground balls respectively.
• Passing stats: Pablo de Blasis excels in passing, with 63.6% accuracy from 88 attempts, while Lucas Castro is 61.3% accurate from 80 attempts. Both play a significant role in the build-up of attacks.

Banfield statistics:

• Playing time and performance: in Banfield’s two games so far, he has scored 1 point, scored 1 goal and conceded 2. Their offensive indicators (xG: 1.5, xGA: 2.4) suggest that their defense could be a weak point.
• Players’ performances: Milton Giménez scored the only goal, while Juan Álvarez contributed with 1 assist. Matías González was the most active striker with 4 shots and 2 attempts on goal.
• Defense: Emanuel Insúa and Aaron Quirós are doing a great job defensively, with 5 and 6 clearances and 5 and 6 ground balls respectively.
• Passing stats: Cristian Núñez is outstanding in passing, with 83.5% accuracy from 79 attempts, while Emanuel Insúa is also an important player in attack with 72.7% accuracy from 88 attempts.

Expert analysis

The analysis shows that Gimnasia is highly motivated and has started the season well, especially at home. Based on Banfield’s poor start and away performance, Gimnasia looks like the favorite.

Analysis and conclusions

1. Gimnasia win or draw (low risk): statistically and based on current form, Gimnasia look like the stronger team. They play at home, where they are stronger.
2. Both teams score (medium risk): based on Gimnasia’s good attacking statistics and Banfield’s weak defence, both teams are likely to score.
3. Rodrigo Castillo scores (medium risk): Castillo is in good form and scores regularly, so he is a good chance to score.
4. Aggregate goals scored above 2.5 (medium risk): both teams have scored more goals in their previous matches and statistically it is likely that more than 2.5 goals will be scored.

Detailed analysis for the proposed bets

Gimnasia win or draw:

• Gimnasia scored 4 points in their first two games, while Banfield only scored 1. Gimnasia is playing at home, where it is a stronger performer.
• Banfield’s weak defence, as shown in xGA (2.4), could cause them problems.

Both teams score goals:

• Gimnasia’s attackers are in form, especially Rodrigo Castillo and Nicolás Colazo.
• Both teams have scored in Banfield’s games so far, suggesting that their defence is weak but they can also surprise offensively.

Rodrigo Castillo scores:

• Castillo has scored 1 goal and attempted 3 shots in his games so far, which is a good indicator. Based on his form and form, he has a chance to score again.

Total goals scored above 2.5:

• Both teams have scored goals in their matches so far. Gimnasia’s games so far have produced an average of 3 goals, while Banfield’s have scored 2 goals, but their defence is weak.

Overall, Gimnasia are a more motivated and better form team, playing at home, which could be an advantage. Banfield’s weak defense and Gimnasia’s strong offense will likely lead to goal scoring from both teams.