23/05/2024
The statistical and expert analysis of today’s match between Cagliari and Fiorentina reveals certain patterns and correlations that can help predict the expected outcome of the game. Below is a detailed analysis based on statistical data and expert opinions.
Statistical Analysis
Cagliari
Defense and Goals:
Cagliari has conceded 65 goals in 37 matches, averaging 1.76 goals per match. Conversely, they have scored only 40 goals, averaging 1.08 goals per match.
Their defense has a 59.2% save rate, which is below the average Serie A level.
The team’s most common formation is 4-4-2, indicating a balance between defense and attack.
Attacks and Goal Opportunities:
Cagliari has achieved a total of 41.0 expected goals (xG), which is lower than the 40 goals scored, indicating weak conversion of chances.
Their top scorer is Nicolas Viola with 5 goals, highlighting the lack of standout scorers in the team.
Key Players:
Zito Luvumbo: 4 goals and 5 assists in 20.8 matches, with a combined expected goals and assists (xG+xAG) of 6.7.
Simone Scuffet: Goalkeeper with a 60% save rate over 30 matches, conceding 3 goals from penalties.
Fiorentina
Defense and Goals:
Fiorentina has conceded 42 goals in 37 matches, averaging 1.17 goals per match, significantly lower than Cagliari’s.
Their goalkeeper, Pietro Terracciano, has a 60% save rate, similar to Cagliari’s goalkeeper, but with fewer goals conceded.
Attacks and Goal Opportunities:
Fiorentina has a total of 48.6 expected goals (xG), significantly higher than the 54 goals scored, indicating efficient use of chances.
Nicolás González is their top scorer with 10 goals and 2 assists, and an xG of 8.9.
Key Players:
Giacomo Bonaventura: 7 goals and 3 assists in 24.5 matches, with an xG of 7.9.
Lucas Martínez Quarta: 5 goals in 24.2 matches, notable for a defender.
Expert Analysis
Experts believe Fiorentina is in stronger form with key players performing better. Additionally, the team is motivated as they are competing for international cup spots. In contrast, Cagliari is fighting against relegation at the end of the season and has several injured key players.
Low-Risk Betting Suggestions
Fiorentina Win:
Risk: Low
Justification: Fiorentina has a stronger attack and defense and is in better form. Their statistical indicators also support a higher chance of winning.
Over 1.5 Goals in the Match:
Risk: Low
Justification: Both teams are prone to conceding many goals, especially Cagliari. Fiorentina’s strong attack could result in a high-scoring match.
Over 2.5 Goals in the Match:
Risk: Medium
Justification: Both teams are prone to conceding many goals, especially Cagliari. Fiorentina’s strong attack could result in a high-scoring match.
Both Teams to Score:
Risk: Medium
Justification: Cagliari’s defense is weak but capable of scoring, while Fiorentina’s attack is efficient. Therefore, it is likely both teams will score.
Conclusion
Based on statistical data and expert opinions, Fiorentina is the favorite to win, considering both their offensive and defensive metrics. Cagliari’s weaker defense and several injured players further increase Fiorentina’s chances. Among the betting suggestions, a Fiorentina win and over 2.5 goals seem quite certain, while both teams to score is also realistic but carries slightly higher risk.